You might think luxury watch prices would be immune to annoyances like viral outbreaks and economic downturns. Nope. According to voguebusiness.com, “the last global recession lopped nine per cent off the size of the personal luxury goods market,” lowering luxury watch sales and prices. It would have been worse if not for China. Yes, well, the coronavirus outbreak . . .
has taken the Chinese luxury watch market off-line for the foreseeable future. The rest of the key Asian watch market is perched on a knife’s edge.
As Asia accounted for roughly half of all Swiss watch exports, if the supply of luxury Swiss watches doesn’t already exceed demand on a worldwide basis, it will soon. This glut will impact prices here, eventually, in different ways. Here’s my best guess as to how it might play out.
Rolex – prices hold
The coronavirus outbreak does not mean Rolex will roll back its recent price hikes. The Swiss watchmaker got where it is today by building superb timepieces and carefully controlling the supply – demand equation.
Falling demand in Asia will allow Rolex to restock Rolex-deficient dealers elsewhere in the world. But the brand will never flood the supply chain – even if it means warehousing tens of thousands of watches – which they’ll release strategically as they cut back on production.
Remember: Rolex is an old company made of money that plays the long game, and plays it well.
OMEGA, TAG Heuer, Bell & Ross, Bulgari, etc. – official prices hold, dealer and gray market prices soften
Just like Rolex, the rest of the Swiss luxury watch crew can’t be seen to cut their retail prices to move the metal. I repeat: they can’t be seen doing it. They can quietly offer “sales incentives” to their authorized dealers to shed inventory, who can then offer discounts to their customers on the DL ,without besmirching the manufacturer’s luxury rep.
At the same time, an authorized dealer trying to push product through the pipeline can [continue] to sell unsold inventory to gray market dealers like Authentic Watches, Jomashop and Prestige Time – as manufacturers [continue to] turn a blind eye. If an authorized dealer pays less for a watch (or is willing to cut their margin), the gray market dealer pays less and the consumer pays less.
Keep in mind that there’s a lot of profit baked into the luxury watch business. Authorized dealers enjoy an average 40 percent margin. Manufacturers, too.
Would luxury watch manufacturers with bloated inventories offer price deals online? They’ve held off on direct-to-consumer discounted sales for fear of alienating/pulling the rug out from under bricks and mortar dealers, but desperate times may call for desperate measures.
Pre-owned Luxury Watches – price crash
If a surfeit of new-in-box luxury watch inventory deflates new watch prices, pre-owned pieces will get hit with a triple-whammy: stronger competition from dealers, stronger competition from gray market sellers and the smell of a downturned market. What savvy buyer buys pre-owned when they can buy new-in-box for slightly more or the same money? Unless they want to pay a lot less.
Again, if the coronavirus takes hold here, demand for luxury watches will die. Prices will be softer than a cashmere scarf. Free from manufacturers’ pricing constraints, the price of pre-owned luxury watches will crash, how do I put this? Bigly. Yes, even pre-owned Royal Oaks and Nautili.
I’ll say it again: it’s a good time to sell a luxury watch, a good time to wait to buy. That’ll be doubly true if the coronavirus outbreak breaks out in The Land of the Free. I pray to God it doesn’t.
UPDATE: Well it sure did! Click here to read our March 27, 2020 update on the market for grail watches.
Of course prices are going to get hammered. No one predicted this, and the market will be oversupplied. Bloomberg is reporting that there are very clear signals of a big, big slowdown in consumer spending in the PRC…get this, auto sales in January were down 22%.
Rolex, Patek and all the bulletproof brands will be fine. Like you said, they’ll fill warehouses with watches before they cut prices. It’s the 2nd and 3rd tier brands that are going to get hammered.
Longines is the most popular watch brand in China. It’s the first nice watch for a lot of young professionals that are entering the middle class and climbing the ladder. Omega is also very popular in this cohort. They’re going to get nailed, as will all of the brands that are further down the trough.
If this continues through the summer and wrecks travel to the Summer Olympics, look out. You’ll be able to find a deals on mid-priced watches from Tokyo to Shanghai to Singapore and everywhere in between.
Way too many luxury watches are being sold at the moment. Rolex starts to become a “poor mans” luxury watch.
It will collapse in a way you’ve never seen. The real rich will be ashamed to wear a luxury watch. You see it happening now…… even Elon Musk is wearing a Casio 91W. That’s where it starts.
Maybe so. Check out this post.